The 2025 NCAA Championship kicks off this week and the competition is guaranteed to be a nail-biter, from semifinal 1 all the way through to the Final Four. If we learned anything from the 2024 season, it’s that nothing is ever guaranteed and that no prediction is too far-fetched.
Here’s our thoughts on the Elite Eight and what we think each team needs to do in order to stay in contention for the title.
Semifinal 1 – 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Oklahoma – NQS 198.040
A longtime favorite to win the NCAA Championship year after year, the Oklahoma Sooners have been on a mission all season to prove their 2024 semifinals performance was a fluke. Last year, the Sooners started their competition on vault and uncharacteristic mistakes put them in a hole too deep to climb out of. As fate would have it, the Sooners have to finish on vault in the semifinals in 2025. This will be the ultimate test to prove that they have truly put the mistakes of the past behind them. As a team, the Sooners have been ranked in the top two nationally all season and while they don’t boast the highest NQS, they do have the highest average of all the teams, a 197.908, which is 0.179 above the reigning national champions, LSU.
We haven’t seen the same level of individual consistency and precision from the Sooners that we have seen in past seasons; however, what they have done is consistently put together strong meets collectively as a team. The Sooners are coming off a season-high performance in the regional finals (198.45) and all they need to do is keep the momentum going. A national title won’t be won on Thursday! All the Sooners need to do is do their “normal” and they should advance to the finals. Getting through semifinals just may be what the Sooners need for that untouchable confidence to come back and propel them to national title No. 7.
Florida – NQS 197.573
If there was an award for the “grittiest” team this season, we’d nominate Florida! Despite injuries to numerous top athletes, the Gators have found themselves slowly climbing in the rankings and continuing to remain in the conversation for the title. The highest score put up by any team in the nation this season belongs to Florida (198.625), and they did that after one of their stars, Sloane Blakley, went down with an injury.
The Gators have been ranked in the top three nationally the final three weeks of the regular season and seem to have more gas in the tank. It’s been a roller coaster of a season in terms of team performances that have been hot and cold. For example, we’ve seen the Gators post an NCAA-record bar score of 49.85 in the SEC Championship, just to move to the beam and squander their chance at the title. In Fort Worth, the Gators will start the competition on beam, which can be a fantastic event for them (they are ranked second in the nation, after all!) and will be glad to get that event out of the way right out of the gates. Their normal performance should be enough to advance them to the Final Four, but if they want to contend for the title, they will need to bring their best on all four events on the same day.
Mizzou – 197.510
If anyone can play spoiler, it’s the Missouri Tigers! It’s been a record-breaking season for the Tigers that included their first-ever score of 198 and the opportunity to compete in the evening session of the SEC Championship for the first time in program history. Mizzou is on a high and enters these championships fresh off edging out the Auburn Tigers at the Seattle Regional Final by only a tenth. But their message all season has been that they belong, and now they get the opportunity to prove it. Mizzou will start on one of their highest-ranked events, floor, and will end on one of their lowest-ranked events – beam. It’s the same rotation order that they had in the regional final when the pressure was on, but can they repeat?
If the Tigers want to upset either Oklahoma or Florida for a spot in the Final Four, they of course will need to hit beam. But they will also need to stick some vaults. They lack the advantage of the full 10.0 start value lineup that the rest of the teams in the semifinal have, which means that landings have to be dialed in if they want to keep pace, let alone make up ground. Jocelyn Moore, Amari Celestine and Hannah Horton can all go big, but we have yet to see them put the landings together on the same day. Two or three stuck vaults could quickly add a few tenths to a team total and make a world of difference. Vault is the only event where the Tigers have yet to break a 49.5 this season. If they can dial it in, this Tiger team could be dangerous!
Alabama – 197.205
Alabama is the other team in this semifinal that has the luxury of calling themselves the underdogs with nothing to lose. Remember how at one point this season, we were all questioning if Alabama was going to get knocked out of the SEC Championships? Well, now here they are at the NCAA Championships for the second season in a row. Alabama may have been slow to start, but they are peaking at the right time. They are also likely still riding the high of upsetting Cal to advance to NCAAs in front of their home crowd. But the drama of that finish certainly leaves the Tide with something to prove.
Bars and floor have been solid events for the Tide this season, but getting a few more vault landings and having a bobble-less beam rotation will be critical if this team wants to pull off another upset to advance to the Final Four. The Tide can’t afford to leave too many tenths on the table. They know they can count on Gabby Gladieux and Lily Hudson to be the high-scoring one-two punch at the end of the rotation, but can the rest of the lineup elevate and hit the 9.9 mark on five of the six routines? We can’t help but feel like that could be the difference-maker in a meet like this.
Semifinal 2 – 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2
LSU – 198.115
For the first time ever, LSU enters the NCAA Championship as the favorite to win. They are ranked No. 1 in the nation, have posted six consecutive scores above 198, and have had a confidence and aura of belonging all season long. The Tigers compete like they know they are the best, and we mean that in an endearing way. Their gymnastics is clearly some of the best in the country, but their culture may be what wins it for them again.
All season long, head coach Jay Clark has preached to his team about focusing on the five minutes in front of their face. They’ve taken each meet as it comes and stayed focused on their end goal – applying the lessons learned from each experience even when it seemed that things weren’t going their way. Jay has also been quick to remind the media that this team hasn’t won anything yet. This seems to be driving their desire to win, and you can physically see how hungry they are to clean up the little details. LSU’s normal will be enough to advance them to the final and may just be enough to win the title again. As with every team, sticking landings will matter, but LSU has had about as good of a track record as anyone when it comes to that this season.
Utah – 197.780
For the 49th straight year, Utah is at the NCAA Championship with a chance to contend for the title. But first they have to make it to the finals, which is no small feat in Semifinal 2. Any team in this session could advance on to the Final Four, and therefore near perfection will be required from each of these teams from start to finish. In our opinion, Utah has it all together on bars, beam and floor. It’s vault landings that have been eluding them. We think we can count on two hands the amount of stuck vaults we’ve seen from Utah this season, and they rarely come in the same meet. If they can put down a few stuck vaults along with their usual performance on the other three events, the Red Rocks are absolutely in the mix to make the Final Four and fight for the title.
UCLA – 197.680
UCLA is back and better than ever, or at least they’re the best that they’ve looked in a few years! The Bruins dominated the Big Ten in their inaugural season, going undefeated in the regular season and winning the conference championship title outright. So many athletes have stepped up this season and are doing their best gymnastics, particularly the upperclassmen. But if the Bruins want to keep dancin’ in the postseason, they will need to put some glue on their feet.
While beam and floor have been among the best in the country (they’re ranked fourth and first, respectively), vault and bar landings have been weaker in comparison. When there are only two spots up for grabs and you’re up against the likes of LSU and MSU, two of the top vault teams in the country, every tenth is going to matter. The same is true for bar landings. It’s going to be a real battle, and the Bruins will need to be on their A game come Thursday if they want to advance. Having freshman star Macy McGowan back in lineups and a fully rested Jordan Chiles should provide the Bruins with a big boost!
MSU – 197.360
A lot of fans are hoping to see Michigan State’s Cinderella story continue after they posted a season-best 198.150 in the regional final to come within a half tenth of the reigning national champs, LSU. For the first time in 37 years, the Spartans qualified to the national championship, sending the message that they are a team that is here to hang with the best. MSU has been quietly killing it all season and making improvements on a week-to-week basis, something that is easy to overlook if you only look at scores. In years past, the only thing missing for this team has been confidence. In a lot of ways, they’ve been their own worst enemy. But this year something just feels different, and we’re seeing the Spartans attack their competitions with a ferocity that we’ve never seen. With two postseason 198 performances under their belt, consistency on landings at an all-time high, and their key contributors in good health *knocks on wood* it seems that the Spartans may just be peaking at the right time. They will start the meet on their best event, vault, so it’s important that they go big right out the gate to ensure an early lead. A performance like we saw in the regional final would put them in great position to make it to the Final Four, but regardless, this Spartan team is guaranteed to have their best finish in school history!