When the chalk dust settles in Tempe, we’ll know the next two teams that have punched their ticket to Fort Worth.
At 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+ Florida, Georgia, Michigan State and Cal will face off to claim two tickets to Fort Worth.
A snapshot of history: In the last 26 years, Florida has only ever missed the NCAA Championships twice. Once a dynasty known for winning national titles, Georgia has not been to the NCAA Championships has a team since 2019. Michigan State made only its second NCAA appearance last season, finishing the season in sixth and Cal made history in 2024 by finishing second. Since 2021, the Bears have made three NCAA Championship appearances.
So what needs to happen for each of these teams to have a shot?
Florida
The No. 3 Florida Gators are the No. 1 seed in Tempe and should advance to the NCAA Championships, barring disaster. The Gators are fresh off winning the SEC title and have posted the highest score in the nation this season (198.575), which should boost their confidence as they look to secure a spot in Fort Worth.
Only two teams scored above 198 in the semifinals: LSU (198.375) and Florida (198.125). Florida did so without a full-strength lineup on floor; eMjae Frazier and possibly Kayla DiCello are expected to return to maximize the Gators’ scoring potential.
The Gators really just need to rinse and repeat to advance. In the finals, they will start on vault and rotate in Olympic order. Vault is considered Florida’s weakest event, but it was one of their highest-scoring events in the semifinals. If the Gators can start strong, then capitalize on bars and beam — where they are ranked No. 1 nationally — they should be able to close out the meet on floor without issue.
Georgia
Georgia comes into this regional as the No. 2 seed, but they’ll need a better performance on beam than they showed in the semifinal, where they counted a fall. Luckily for the Gym Dogs, they were strong enough on the other three events to still advance to the finals with a score of 197.125. However, beam — their lowest-ranked event — could potentially be the deciding factor.
The Gym Dogs left a lot out on the floor in the semifinals. JaFree Scott had an uncharacteristic performance that could easily add several tenths to the Gym Dogs score in the finals if she just does her normal on vault, bars and beam. Csenge Bacskay also has room to improve on vault, only posting a 9.650 when she’s capable of going 9.9+.
Otherwise, the Gym Dogs have shown consistency and confidence throughout the season, despite losing key contributors Lily Smith and Holly Snyder. If Georgia can start strong on bars and carry that momentum through beam in the second rotation, they should be in a good position, especially since they finish on their best events in terms of national ranking (fifth on vault and third on floor).
Will this finally be the year that Georgia breaks through? It certainly feels like they have the edge.
Michigan State
A trip to the NCAA Championships eluded Michigan State for years, but the Spartans broke through last season. There is little doubt the Spartans are hungry to do it again.
Ranked No. 11 nationally, Michigan State is stronger than their ranking suggests. With more meets factored into a team’s NQS this season, early scores in the 195–196 range have weighed down the Spartans. However, they have consistently scored 197 or higher, with a season high of 197.7.
The objects in your mirror are closer than they appear.
Injuries have been a challenge, with key contributors from last season — Elle Beaufait, Emma Misenheimer, Amy Doyle and Olivia Zsarmani — not competing. Still, the Spartans have remained competitive, a testament to their depth.
During the semifinals, Lilia Cosman — who competes on bars and beam — appeared to suffer an injury after hitting her foot on the uneven bars. If she is unable to compete, Michigan State will likely need to turn to a less experienced replacement. In the semifinals, that was Isabel Biro on beam, who rose to the occasion after being thrown into the lineup late and delivered under pressure. Bars remains the biggest question mark, with someone likely making a lineup debut.
Despite it all, Michigan State defeated Georgia in the semifinals, 197.350-197.125, and remains in contention behind strong performances from Nikki Smith, who scored a 10 on vault, along with Sage Kellerman and Makayla Tucker.
Michigan State will open on floor before rotating to vault — its two strongest events — and will look to build an early cushion in case bars or beam prove less consistent. Ending on beam could make this competition a nail-biter if it is close.
Cal
Cal is the No. 4 seed and has already exceeded many fans’ expectations by reaching the regional final after graduating over half of its lineups from last season, in addition to losing its star, Ondine Achampong, to an ACL injury in the preseason. But the Golden Bears know how to rally, and we’ve seen their scores improve as the weeks have gone on.
The chances of Cal advancing out of this regional are a long shot and would likely require mistakes from the other teams, in addition to their own best meet of the season — but crazier things have happened at regionals before. The good news for Cal is that they finish on bars, their highest-ranked event, should the other teams leave the door cracked open.
Cal could also help its cause by starting strong on beam right out of the gate and letting that momentum carry through the rest of the meet. They’ll also hope to stick more vaults than they did in the semifinals. Because the other teams boast full 10.0 start value lineups, Cal is already at a disadvantage; therefore, cleanly executed vaults with minimal landing deductions will be crucial to their success.